Tag: economic outlook

14-32 Crashes and Recessions | Bidenomics, Kamalanomics, and Walzonomics

14-32 Crashes and Recessions | Bidenomics, Kamalanomics, and Walzonomics

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Show 14-32 Summary: Why talk about economics? Because the number one issue for most voters is economics. So if you want to influence how people might vote, you need to know the economic issues at stake and the differences between a Trump administration and a Kamala one. Poor jobs numbers caused the recent stock market crash. Was it just the unemployment numbers and the triggering of the 100%-accurate Sahm Rule that indicates we’re in a recession? Or did the economy not have faith in the guy with dementia allegedly in charge of it? Expect more downturns if Kamala and Walz get elected. The single best answer to Bidenomics, Kamalanomics, and Walzonomics is something we know works: Trumponomics.

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Original Air Dates: August 10th & 11th, 2024 | Guest: Jonathan Williams

This Week – Bidenomics, Kamalanomics, and Walzonomics

This week, it’s about economics, a topic that surveys repeatedly show as being the number one or near the number one issue for voters. We talk with Jonathan Williams from the American Legislative Exchange Council to take a look at the stock market crash beginning Friday August 2nd and rolling over to Monday. And the lingering jitters as a result of it. Are we one market correction away from a major recession?

Then we look at Bidenomics, Kamalanomics, and Walzonomics — all of which get progressively worse because each of those is further left than the previous one. Reagan once said, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help.” Although we might have a new contender for the one- most terrifying word — Kamalanomics.

We don’t know what Kamala thinks. We don’t know if she thinks or is just spouting what other people tell her to think. But she has said she “loves Bidenomics!” and that she will get rid of the Trump tax cuts on day one if elected.

If you thought Bidenomics was bad, Kamalanomics will crush you. And Walzonomics would be even worse because he’s an avowed socialist.

Well. The answer to Bidenomics, Kamalanomics, and Walzonomics  is something we know works. Trumponomics. So we also take a look at some of Trump’s solutions. But with so much to talk about, time ran a bit short so we’ll have to take a look at his solutions in more depth on a future show.

Socialism is Not Neighborliness

Sorry Governor Walz, socialism is not neighborliness. Socialism is not kind. Socialism is not neighborly. Not even close.

Socialism is about total government control. It is the nationalization of the economy. And that only happens through the control of resources and the means of production, which happens through the end of private property. And if you don’t like it, socialism is imposed at the end of a gun.

Do you threaten your neighbors with guns, Governor Walz?

Our founders knew that without private property there really is no freedom.

Socialism deprives people of their incentives to do better. Their desire to succeed because it punishes those who try — as more and more “neighbors” lay their claim to someone else’s success and demand their piece of it bec they have been told they are entitled to it

I don’t know what kind of neighborhood you live in, Walz, but most neighbors I know don’t think that they are entitled to take someone else’s lawn mower.

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Show Notes: Research, Links Mentioned & Additional Info

  • Jonathan’s organization is ALEC – the American Legislative Exchange Council. Find out more at ALEC.org.
    • Encourage your representatives to join ALEC! There are state and city memberships. Help elected officials understand economic problems and the real solutions available to get out of them! Send them this link: https://alec.org/membership/.
    • And you too can join as a private-sector member!
    • You can follow Jonathan on Twitter at @TaxEconomist.
  • Head to Rich States, Poor States to see how your state is doing. And for a taste of what Kamalanomics and Walzonomics would be like, check out how badly Minnesota is doing under governor Tim Walz. (Hint: worse than Oregon!)
  • Check out Trump’s platform, “Agenda 47.” A 20-point plan, much of which focuses on the economy.

The Stock Market Crash and Recession

  • Dow drops 900 points, Nasdaq craters 2% in global market rout (CNBC, August 5, 2024)
    • Fears of a U.S. recession were the main culprit for the global market meltdown after Friday’s disappointing July jobs report.
  • Stocks routed in Asia, tumble in Europe as markets fear U.S. recession in wake of weaker than expected jobs report (CBS, Aug 5, 2024)
    • Japan’s benchmark stock index plunged 12.4% on Monday, compounding a global market rout set off by investor concerns that the the U.S. economy could be headed for a recession.
  • This recession indicator is flashing red, but the ‘Sahm Rule’ creator says ‘this time really could be different’ (Fortune, August 2, 2024)
    • “The Sahm Rule’s accuracy rate is 100% going back to every recession since the early 1970s.”
  • Unemployment Rate Spike Triggers ‘Sahm Rule’ Indicator, Signaling Potential US Recession (The Epoch Times, August 5, 2024)
  • Fury as Biden tries to defend his record – as stock market meltdown intensifies in afternoon trading in blow to 401(K)s (UK Daily Mail, August 5, 2024)
    • “Wall Street’s most watched gauge of investor anxiety logged its largest ever daily jump on Monday. [The Cboe Volatility Index or VIX] hit the highest level in four years — when it last spiked as Covid shut down the economy.

Kamalanomics

Walzonomics would be Worse than Kamalanomics

 

economics. it's all theory until it implodes. rich states, poor states, and their economic outlook. Plus Oregon
Economics: Rich States, Poor States — Guess Where Oregon is

Economics: Rich States, Poor States — Guess Where Oregon is

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Show Summary: It’s true economics isn’t the most exciting topic in the world — that is, until everything starts blowing up. Then you’ll wish you’d paid attention.

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Original Air Dates: May 15 & 16, 2021 | Jonathan Williams

This Week: Economics isn’t always exciting — unless things are blowing up. Or it’s a horse race.

We welcome back Jonathan Williams, Chief Economist and Executive Vice President of Policy of the American Legislative Exchange Council. ALEC has just released their 2021 Rich States, Poor States guide for 2021, an annual guide to the 50 states’ economic outlook. Talk about good, bad, and ugly. Look no further than how the states are competing with one another.

The Overall U.S. Economy & Economics

Before we narrow down to the states, we first look at the overall economy. This is a bit of a continuation of the last time Jonathan was on, when we talked about the democrats’ shift to what we call “non-reality economics.” The democrats’ plans are an explosion of taxes and spending sprees (what did we just say about exploding economics…?).

That discussion, was about the radical shift we’re seeing the democrats trying desperately to push on the U.S. Which, sadly, takes a hard left turn away from what has made America successful. It’s a fantasy land where debt has no meaning, money is infinite, and all we need to do is print money and borrow until every there’s a unicorn in every garage and a leprechaun in every pot.

But the problem democrats always run into is simple one. Reality. And there’s proof, thanks to the 50 test tubes of democracy that make up America.

Good Economies: How NOT to do it

Sometimes, to know what to do, it helps to know what not to do. And look no further than New York State, which had the worst response to covid and lost a congressional seat due to people fleeing the Empire State. And now new York will punish the people and businesses that for some reason haven’t left. Yet.

We talk with Jonathan about his terrific article in the National Review, “The Fallout from ‘Progressive’ Budgets in New York.” There has been a massive shift in who pays for things. Now, instead of New York being in debt to cover its debt, everyone else gets to go in debt to cover New York’s debts.

And that’s the direction we as a nation are headed. Where there is a fundamental shift in who pays for things: everyone is paying for everyone else. That’s socialism. Marxist ideology pushed onto America.

Socialism only survives as long as it is able to feed off the success of capitalism
– Mark Anderson

Rich States, Poor States

Why and how economies and economic policies work is sometimes beyond people’s wheelhouse. But everyone understands competition, right? Who’s best. Who’s worst. And who’s on the way up and who’s on the way down.

Oregon's economic performance 2009 - 2019. Courtesy of Rich States, Poor States
Courtesy Rich States, Poor States, 2021 Edition. (Click image for full size.)

That’s where Rich States, Poor States comes in. (You can download your own copy right here.) RSPS is a look back at the states’ economic performances over the last 10 years—of available data. This year, its’ a look at 2009–2019.

The backward-looking economic performance ranking examines how well states did. Oregon, from 2009–2019, really didn’t do too bad. This ranking looks at three variables: a state’s gross domestic product, their absolute domestic migration, and non-farm payroll.

Take a look at Oregon’s charts. And look at how well they’re correlated. As the state did better and better, culminating in 2015, people moved in (especially in 2016). Payrolls went up. And then, as Oregon’s GDP declined, there went the people. And payrolls dropped.

See? Economics isn’t too hard.

Oregon’s Economic Outlook

When it comes to Oregon’s economic outlook ranking, every year we’re like “please don’t embarrass us, please don’t embarrass us…” And then there we are. Near the bottom. Again. But it’s even worse this year.

You’ll have to tune in to hear just how bad. (Or, you could cheat and go right to Rich States Poor States to find out.) But here’s a hint. We beat even our idiot neighbor to the south in some categories. In fact, in the worst possible category. And we’re worse than New York State in some categories. You know, the one state we just mentioned. How not to run an economy.

Although at least the beat us to the bottom for the worst outlook. Hey. You gotta look for the positive right?

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Links Mentioned

Did You Know…?

  • The Fed has been pumping (printing) money into the economy. But something new happened in 2020. Now, they are buying corporate bonds. This is a direct investment into select corporations. Here’s a hint. It’s not mom-and-pop shops. It’s gigantic companies that don’t need the money, but the Fed is rewarding them anyway.
  • The Fed says it is going to start buying individual corporate bonds (CNBC, June 15, 2020)
  • The Fed begins purchases of up to $250 billion in individual corporate bonds (Markets Insider, June 15, 2020)
  • Why the Fed’s new index approach to buying U.S. corporate debt ‘changes everything’ (MarketWatch, June 18, 2020)
  • Fed Makes Initial Purchases in Its First Corporate Debt Buying Program (New York Times, May 12, 2020)
  • Is the Federal Reserve Printing Money? (The Balance, May 11, 2021)
  • Why is the Fed buying up mortgages? At $40 billion per month. Is this why the housing market keeps exploding? “Understanding the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet” (Investopedia, Mar 19, 2021)

Related Links

  • The Fed Should Get Out of the Mortgage Market: Even central bankers are starting to wonder why they’re adding $40 billion of housing debt every month. (Bloomberg Opinion, May 11, 2021)
    • “Why exactly is the Fed still increasing its holdings of mortgage-backed securities by $40 billion a month when Chair Jerome Powell himself has said that “the housing sector has more than fully recovered from the downturn”?* “The Fed has gobbled up almost $2 trillion of MBS since March 2020, which is more than its total aggregate purchases in any of its previous quantitative easing episodes.”
    • At an average home mortgage price of $250,000, the fed backs the mortgage on some 8 million homes. Yikes!
  • In 2010, The Fed answers FAQs on Mortgage Backed Securities
  • What Is An Agency MBS And How Does The Federal Reserve’s Purchase Of MBS Affect Mortgage Rates? (Quicken Loans, Feb 19, 2021)
    • “A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is a pool of home loans, often packaged by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae, sold on the open bond market to investors. The investors who buy the securities then receive the payback on a monthly basis when homeowners make their principal and interest payments.”
  • Difference Between Agency and Non-Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (The Balance, Jul 15  2020) – “Agency” simply means an dept of the federal govt, or MBS that become backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S.